This is it, folks. The 2018 Hall of Fame results will be announced tomorrow at 6 p.m. What can we expect? Let’s take a look:
How many are we going to see get elected?
Four. Chipper Jones, Vladimir Guerrero, and Jim Thome are above 90% through 224 votes on the HOF tracker. And Trevor Hoffman, who missed elected by just 5 votes last year, is +11, and 10-for-11 with first time voters. Edgar Martinez had a promising start, but he needed to make up 73 votes, and is only +22 and 9-for-11. He’s set up to go the Tim Raines route, but he’s not likely to get in this year, barring a massive post-results swing.
What about Mike Mussina?
When you look back at our first post about the results, through 58 votes, he was just a +2, and 2-for-4 with first-timers. Since then, we’ve seen 166 votes, and he’s gone +19 and 7-for-7 with first-timers in that group, for an overall +21 and 9-of-11. This is really, really good progress.
Any other meaningful trends?
Bonds and Clemens have nearly completely stalled. Though they are 10-for-11 and 11-for-11, respectively, with first-timers, they are just a +2 with returning voters. Last year, they were +27. The new voters will help, but there just doesn’t look to be enough movement for them to get in any time soon.
How’s that 10-man limit hurting Mussina?
At least 3 voters have said they’d have voted for him had they had more room. The bigger issue, however, is that at least six voters have said they would have voted for Edgar. That could be the difference between him getting elected this year or not, which matters for 2020.
Where do you see Mussina finishing?
I think he can sneak into the 60s this year. Maybe 62%. If he can do that, with four names coming off, and just three strong names coming on, he’ll probably gain back some of those voters who squeezed him off.
His fate for next year is going to be heavily influenced by this year’s vote. If he finishes at 60%, for example, that means his last two years saw gains of 9 and 8 percentage points. That might speak to a flattening of his support, and probably makes a jump of 15 percentage points unlikely. But if he gets to 63%, let’s say, that’s an 11 percentage point jump, and makes a 12-point jump possible.