“We’re in the endgame now.”

This site’s 10+ year quest may be nearing its end. With 31 ballots collected, Ryan Thibodaux’s vote tracker has Mussina at 83.9%. This includes going two-for-two with new voters and picking up five new voters. Mussina missed election by 49 votes last year. To get elected this year, he needs to flip about one out of every three non-votes from last year and stay above 75% among new voters (of which there should be 10 to 15 this year). Mussina has flipped five of nine no votes from last year.  It’s going to be very close, but he’s off to a great start. Only Edgar Martinez has added more new voters this year.

Speaking of which…

Edgar Martinez looks certain to get elected in 2019. He’s 31 for 31 on ballots so far. He only missed election by 20 votes this year, and as I mentioned he has already flipped six voters. Mariners’ fans can feel safe making their hotel reservations for Cooperstown.

Mariano Rivera is going to join Edgar next summer. Mo is also perfect on ballots. Like the games he once closed in the Bronx, there is little drama as to how this will end.

Just ahead of Mussina in the vote total is Roy Halladay, who sits at 90.3%. Halladay also looks like a shoe-in for election. After Halladay and Mussina, things get a little messier.

Curt Schilling is at 74.2% and appears to be a year or two away (He finished at 51.2% last year). Barry Bonds and Roger Clemens are showing no momentum. The best hope for these two are new voters (who backed them at an 85% rate in 2018). If enough new voters support them, they may be able to get to 75% before their eligibility is up in 2023. Otherwise, it does not appear a large enough cohort of voters is changing their minds anytime soon.

Larry Walker‘s late push continues. He’s added five new voters and like Moose is two-for-two with the new voters. It might be too late for Walker to get over 75%, but a late voting push might give him a strong argument with the Veteran’s Committee. A similar final year surge may have helped Alan Trammell get via the Modern Era Committee.

We will be back in a week or so with another ballot update. Make sure to follow us on Twitter for regular commentary.

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