How’s Mussina doing?

The BBHOF Tracker currently has Mike Mussina at 84% with 78 votes collected. While this is an excellent start, we want to be cautious. This total will certainly drop as it has in years past. Earlier voters tend to support more candidates.  Through 80 ballots last year, Mussina was at about 73% (he ended up at 63.5%). If past is prologue, Mussina would end up painfully short of 75%. With that said, there are trends which suggest otherwise.

Mussina is running four-for-four with first-time voters. Among the 23 voters who didn’t vote for him last year, who have voted this year, he’s picked up 11 votes (a 47.8% rate). Last year there were 154 voters who didn’t vote for Mussina. If the 47% “flip-rate” stays constant, Mussina will pick up 72 votes and easily be elected (he missed by 49 votes last year). I don’t think the 47% rate will hold. It’s a great start though, and a “flip-rate” around 33% (154/.33 > 49) gives Mussina a real chance for election.

On the other hand, voters are not dropping Mussina, an issue that some candidates have run into in the past. Only one voter, David Lennon, removed Mussina from his ballot. Other candidates, like Manny Ramirez (-5) and Curt Schilling last year (-11), have run into this speedbump.

What about the other candidates?

Mariano Rivera (100%), Roy Halladay (92.6%), and Edgar Martinez (91.4%) are safe bets for election.

Newcomers Todd Helton (22.2%) and Andy Pettitte (11.1%) won’t be elected this year but will stay above the 5% threshold required to remain on the ballot. Both will have a long climb to get to 75%.

We are likely to get a few more years of Bonds/Clemens debate as neither one seems to be changing a lot of minds. Both of them have only flipped one vote so far and look certain to produce results in the high 50s again.


A Merry Christmas and Happy New Year to you!

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