We are two weeks away from the announcement of the class of 2019. Here’s what we know so far…

As I wrote in the first two ballot updates, there is not a lot of suspense this year among the top three candidates. Mariano Rivera (100%), Roy Halladay (94.3%), and Edgar Martinez (90.6%) are going be elected. Halladay and Martinez will probably drop a few percentage points as more ballots come in–later ballots tend to have fewer names–but they are safe. If Mariano Rivera getting 100% means a lot to you, I guess there is suspense.

Mike Mussina‘s candidacy involves a lot of drama and there are multiple ways to think about it.

With 159 ballots collected, Mussina is at 83%. At this time last year, Mussina was at 73.6% through 163 ballots. He ended up at 63.5%. That dropoff makes the math pretty easy, as it puts Mussina on pace for about 73% this year. That is exactly where I’ve thought he would end up since the beginning.

On the other hand, Mussina only dropped 6.5 points from his pre-release total in 2018 (70%) to his actual total (63.5%). There is more detail in Ryan’s vote tracker. If the 6.5 percentage point number holds, Mussina just needs to stay above 81.5% as more ballots come in. That won’t be easy though.

As I wrote above and you can see in the chart below, vote totals tend to drop once we cross the 170-vote threshold.

These late publishing voters tend to have stricter credentials for the Hall of Fame and don’t mind voting for only a few candidates. Last year there were 247 ballots collected before the results were announced, so we have a ways to go.

Patrick, on the other hand, hopes Mussina can clear 75%


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